Wednesday, March 24, 2010

S&P500 short-term: No time to waste!

Last post - S&P500: Sell in May, called for a sideways-downwards consolidation between 1144-1170 in a possible wave 4, followed by an eventual move up towards 1220. But the market thought it a waste of time, did a quick a-b-c down to 1153 level (retest of recent highs), and marched onwards and upwards towards better camping grounds.

Near-term target: 1185

In the last 3 days, we setup a not-so-purrfect Inverse Head & Shoulders on the 5-min chart, and yesterday's break above 1170, suggests a target of around 1185. In the very short-term expect some consolidation. Supports are at 1170, 1153.

Short-term target, based on W5 = W1

Bound by the green lines, SPX looks to be converging towards a top. A typical target of this 5th would be equal to length of W1. 1153+67= 1220. Looks familiar?! Check out the long-term chart on the previous post. Caution is warranted however, as the minimum requirement for a wave 5 has been met. And the next big move, when it happens, will be down. Also, yesterday's late push setup a negative Divergence on the hourly & daily RSIs.

The Count

Now, i know some EW folks reading this blog are yelling 'heresy', at my count (W1 looks nothing like a typical impulse). I agree, and share your concern. But, waves donot always unfold in ideal form, as markets are not perfect reflectors of collective mood. Hence the use of trendlines, fibo ratios and momentum indicators to supplement the readings. So, please bear with me on this. As an aside, check out the RUT hourly, and this count begins to look much better. ;)

All the best folks!

PS: Installed Disqus as the comments system, like the one on slopeofhope, where i hangout sometimes.
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