Saturday, June 5, 2010

Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: "Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold is No Safe Haven"

The euro's recent loss has been the dollar's gain, which means that it's not the best time to buy the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn't such a good buy either. Watch the second excerpt from Robert Prechter's May 20 interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task to hear what Prechter thinks is in store for the U.S. currency and gold.

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future. Hurry! This free offer expires June 7.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Shanghai Composite Medium-Term: Upwards in wave C

After the sharp rise in wave A, there was an extended 9 month sideways consolidation. What i initially read as a bullish triangle scenario, turned out to be a wedge in a complex wave B correction, retracing 50% of the rise. I believe we are now setup for the medium-term wave C rise, before returning to the Longer-Term Bear Market.

Last post on SSEC noted a breakout of the sharp short-term downtrend. Since the breakout, SSEC rose sharply to 2680 (8% gain), before giving back 50% in the last week. Here's the updated daily chart calling for a medium-term bullish case:

Supporting Volume Cues

- the overall decline in the volume during the entire correction.
- every small rise was accompanied by rise in volume(& vice versa), during the correction
- the biggest continous decline had some of the lowest volumes.

Short-Term: Bullish

In the short-term, we can expect volatility & possibly one more new low. Subsequently, a struggle up towards 2890, and eventually the upper channel line. Overall, the downside from here on is limited, and risk-reward favours the bulls.

Very Short-Term: Neutral

In the very short-term, we could go eitherways as shown in the 30-min chart below:

  • A break above the range, will offer a near-term target of 2780.
  • A move below the range (boxed), may lead to a retest of the 2480 low. (An unlikely break below the latter level, will offer a target of 2280.)
BTW, this is the 100th post on this blog. Thank you for your support and criticisms. Keep 'em coming.

All the best!