After the sharp rise in wave A, there was an extended 9 month sideways consolidation. What i initially read as a bullish triangle scenario, turned out to be a wedge in a complex wave B correction, retracing 50% of the rise. I believe we are now setup for the medium-term wave C rise, before returning to the Longer-Term Bear Market.
Last post on SSEC noted a
breakout of the sharp short-term downtrend. Since the breakout, SSEC rose sharply to 2680 (8% gain), before giving back 50% in the last week. Here's the updated daily chart calling for a
medium-term bullish case:
Supporting Volume Cues
- the overall decline in the volume during the entire correction.
- every small rise was accompanied by rise in volume(& vice versa), during the correction
- the biggest continous decline had some of the lowest volumes.
Short-Term: Bullish
In the short-term, we can expect volatility & possibly one more new low. Subsequently, a struggle up towards 2890, and eventually the upper channel line. Overall, the downside from here on is limited, and risk-reward favours the bulls.
Very Short-Term: Neutral
In the very short-term, we could go eitherways as shown in the 30-min chart below:
A break above the range, will offer a near-term target of 2780.
A move below the range (boxed), may lead to a retest of the 2480 low. (An unlikely break below the latter level, will offer a target of 2280.)
BTW, this is the 100th post on this blog. Thank you for your support and criticisms. Keep 'em coming.
All the best!
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