Saturday, February 5, 2011

USD looking down the rabbit hole!

Last update on the USD saw a breakout out of the downtrend, and a struggle up towards $81, before trending down for a back-test of the uptrendline. Looking for a consolidation between the two trendlines. A sustained break below the lower trendline is long-term bearish for the USD, and thus bullish for commodities and stocks. Watch this chart!

Sunday, January 30, 2011

GOLD: At Uptrendline

Was looking through some old charts, and bumped into this Gold chart. Was surprised to see Gold hit the target indicated (although the target was based on log scale). I donot trade Gold, but some of you might find this chart interesting. Price is approaching the uptrendline, with a bounce possible to retest $1400.

SENSEX: Reaching Support

Sensex had a little dance at the upper channel support, before sliding down quickly towards 18200. Good congestion support here just under 18000, likely to effect a bounce at least. A sustained deterioration below this level will see 16000 area.


Strategy: This is a BUY zone, with a stop-loss at 17500.

Shanghai Composite: Trendline Watch

Since my last post on the SSEC calling for a move lower, the index has fallen 8% so far, punctuated by some whip-saw rallies. The resulting structure looks like a overlapping descending wedge, suggesting corrective action so far, unless we see a sharp breakdown in the weeks ahead. A break out of the wedge may be short-term bullish, but until that happens, we're still in a downtrend.


Note that the entire decline has been on declining volume. Last couple of sessions, saw SSEC bounce off a minor trendline (maroon) on decent volume. Is this the start of a fightback? A significant support trendline (grey) exists further down just below 2600.

Short-term trade: I may be a buyer around the lower trendline, or on a break out of the wedge, with a suitable stop below my purchase price.