(Video) Nifty (India): Mark Galasiewski's View

Mark Galasiewski, is the editor of Asia Pacific Financial Forecast, at Elliott Wave International. Here's an interview with him, by India Times, on the Nifty Index. Enjoy!

Shanghai Composite Very Short-Term: Rebound likely

Last post suggested that the bullish triangle in the shanghai composite was still intact as long as prices stay above 2890. Today, SSEC closed at 2868, officially in dodgy territory. Before we go on to ponder what that means, here's a snapshot of the hourly chart for the very-short-term picture:

At the bottom of the chart, note the RSI divergence, which indicates that a rebound is likely at this point, towards resistance in the 3020 area. Also note the declining down volume, and the completion of 5 waves on this leg.

Medium-term

So the ultimate question: is the triangle scenario still valid? Based on all the indicators i'm watching, it is highly likely that it still is! We may have to modify the triangle count to a much broader one, implying a longer sideways path, and a rally towards year-end. A break below 2700 will cancel this option. After watching the next few sessions, i'll explain the broader triangle count in the next post.

Stay tuned, and all the best!

S&P500: Some charts

In lieu of prophecies, i let the charts do most of the talking this post :)

Sentiment

Sentiment is reaching the bullish highs of Jan-10. Also note the divergence, Price has made new highs, whereas sentiment has not (so far). Could be classic "5th wave" or "Z wave" divergence, whatever the count! Anymore upside movement, is definitely swimming against the tide here.

Long-term chart:

 At parallel channel resistance, 61.8% retrace, and just below historical resistance area around 1300

6-month price-by-volume chart:

A technique shared by Leisa, shows significant support around 1150 & 1100

Hourly chart:

Range between 1215 & 1180, a break below would find support around 1140-1150.

Very short-term, expecting an upward-to-sideways grind, followed by more downside. Minor support 1162 area. Resistance areas 1200, 1205 & 1214.

All the best!

Russell 2000: Gunning for 765? UPDATED

Ok, so we have been going up on overbought for a while now. What do we learn from that? Price action is primary, while wave counts & indicators are secondary. The simple truth is price-and-only-price determines whether you make or lose money! When in doubt, respect the prevailing trend. But hey, who can resist the thrill of calling the future - of being the next Nostadamus!

So here goes. Russell 2000 has been on a tear. Check out the hourly:

In the very short-term, it's up against upper channel resistance, and likely to see a correction. Initial supports at recent high of 725, followed by 700 level. Now let's examine the daily:

Note the medium-term upper channel line in grey, converging with the solid resistance level of 765 - a formidable barrier. It's likely to be a good place for some much needed pause.

On a weekly chart, the advance looks impulsive, and has broken above the downtrendline. Any brave souls who'd like to suggest a wave count here, are more than welcome to do so in the comments section - impulsive or otherwise.

The short-term trend is still up. Guard your positions wth stops always. All the best folks!

Asia & South East Asia: Birds of the same feather?

Here's two 5-year charts, poised at very interesting junctures:

Dow Jones Asian Titans Index

Dow Jones South East Asia Index

At first glance, these two birds of similar feathers, seemed to have flocked together under trendline resistance. A closer examination reveals the superior performance of S E Asia in terms of retracement. Do note that Japan makes up a large percentage(50%) of Asian Titans.

There are possibilities at this stage. A break above the topline would indicate a retest of all time highs in the medium-term. A consolidation below the line, over the next few months, might setup huge Inverse Head & Shoulders patterns over the longer time frame. I'll be keeping an eye on these charts for sure.

Stay tuned!

EW enthusiasts might wanna comment on the form of the decline & rise in both these charts (corrective or impulsive?). What does your Elliott eye see?

Useful Links

DJ Asian Titans Index