What started out as a bear feast at the open yesterday, turned instead into a bear hunt, and sent 'em scampering into the woods! We did break the uptrendline, and fell sharply to 1085. Then a sharp reversal to close the gap. Once again, very persistent market action - just like the Hang Seng Index in Asia, where i pointed out a possible bullish cup & handle in the making, a couple of days ago.
We're back at the fork in the road. This driver's confused. Made a dash for the bear road, did a smoking Michael Schumacher U-turn, and got right back to the fork.
So, what does the road sign say?
There's a lotta dust n tyre bits in the air obscuring the sign. While the oscillators allow a break eitherways here, i'm betting on the bullish route in the short-term. Hence i'm foolishly putting up my bullish wave-count. Note that wave 4s tend to have false breakouts below trendline.
Very short-term scenarios
a) A small spike up to 1105, followed by sideways-to-downwards action to unwind the oscillators into the weekend, and a possible breakout to the upside on Monday.
b) A sharp fall to below 1080, leading much lower. (Less likely, but never take a trendline break lightly)
Preferred scenario: a.
As always watch the price action & trendlines, place your stops.
Have a good Friday!
Edit:
BTW, I really like Roger D's fractal view - a bearish scenario:
http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/e3f63c60-4d39-4639-a1ac-f103b6fbf49c
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5 comments:
The market never seems to hang about for more than five or six days (give or take) in the one spot. Its now been hovering around the 1100 mark for eight, in what could be a bull flag so I am more than half expecting a move on Monday to resolve the situation.
Agree Chabazite. Technically, it could go eitherways here. So far most world markets i follow are at similar junctures. Looking at the nature of the declines so far, i suspect there's upside left. The best way is to wait it out before taking any positions.
Trendlines,
I found this paatern of 5 pt reversals interesting, will monday complete the 3rd set and is it part of the larger 5 pt pattern.
Roger D.
http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/31afbfb4-e7e0-4350-ad88-552e43974fd5
http://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/31afbfb4-e7e0-4350-ad88-552e43974fd5
Very interesting chart Roger D, thanks for sharing. It's gonna be an interesting week ahead for sure.
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