For the last month or so, every short-term peak had bears shouting "crash". Most of my posts pointed out how a crash is unlikely, merely based on the distance from the lower uptrend channel line (a sign of strength). Well, finally enough steam has been let off, and price is at the original uptrend channel (maroon). While am still not expecting a crash, we could be in a corrective period for a while, followed possibly by another high towards
1220.
Although i ask readers to ignore my wave counts, some might have noticed the latest change. That's right, abandoned the WXY, moved 1-2 down & marked the break of the green line as end of 3, and we're in a wave 4 correction. Please do continue to ignore my counts!
Multiple supports around 1154 (including the tentative channel in red). Followed by 1135 (38% retrace of 3 & neckline of IHS). Although unlikely, any
crash will find support near the grey uptrendline (connecting the 870 & 1045 lows)
Very Short-Term
Above is a 5-min chart. Notice the descent from 1181 was in 3-waves. Now, this could be in order of preference:
- 'w' of a w-x-y
- or a simple a-b-c
- or 1-2, i-ii action of a more powerful downmove.
If prices break
up thru the red downtrendline, expect a re-test of 1174 or 1181, followed by more sideways action. On a break
down, expect initial support at 1154, followed by 1135. Overall, am expecting corrective action between
1181-1154.
Approaching a top
We're definitely fast approaching a significant medium-term top. It will be interesting to observe the depth of the correction that follows, now that price seems to be in a 5th wave up.
Meanwhile,
Shanghai broke out nicely today, and still following the plan!
All the best folks! Let's take it one week at a time.
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