Thursday, April 15, 2010

SGX: Escape Velocity?

In a previous post - SGX short-term: Ready for Liftoff? - the below chart was presented, proposing an imminent launch for SGX with a target of 8.3.


Well, prices hit a high of 8.31 in heavy volume today, before closing at 8.26 - a gain of 8.5%.


Escape Velocity?

Ok, so we have liftoff! The question is do we have escape velocity, to clear earth's orbit? The big clue is in the volume spike. No guarantees, but i am expecting a breakout, followed by a back-test and consolidation, as prices are currently in the overbought region.  Alternatively, consolidation could occur just below the upper channel line, before an eventual breakout.

Resistance & Support levels

A breakout will meet immediate resistance in the 8.8 region, but could go for an eventual target of 10.8 (50% retracement level) in the medium-term. A rejection here, on the other hand will find support at the bottom channel line initially.

Implications
Remember, SGX is a barometer for Singapore and the region. Although, i am expecting a pull back for Asian markets short-term, a breakout for SGX above 8.8 (if & when it happens), might have bullish implications in the medium-term for SE Asia markets in general.

Strap on some oxygen tanks folks, the air is thin up here. All the best!
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