Sunday, April 4, 2010

Shanghai Composite Long-Term Count

This post is in response to a request from one of the readers: the count for Shanghai Composite since the Oct08 top. Attached below are two long term charts.



Long-Term - Bearish

There isn't enough data for an even longer term count. Judging from the nature & depth of the correction since Oct'08, a wave 5 of larger degree was most likely completed at 6100, and a five wave impulsive decline followed. Notice how the decline fits neatly into a parallel trend channel. Naturally, we should expect waves B (up) & C (down) to follow. We're currently in the B wave up since Oct'09. Not expecting any new highs on this upmove, and should be moving down to test the lows in a C down within the next couple of years.

BTW, for EW buffs, SSEC seems to be making a habit of extending the 5th wave. Can you spot the two instances in the chart above?

Medium-Term - Bullish

This B wave up since Oct'09, itself should ideally consist of 3-waves A-B-C (Markets are fractals in EW theory). About a month ago, i identified a triangle B of B sideways, with a C up to follow, with an initial target of around 3900 (coinciding with the 50% retrace level).

Short-Term - Neutral

Refer to this earlier post. Heading towards a target of 3200 in D, before turning down in E.


If you're confused with all the lingo above, i'd recommend this basic elliott wave tutorial, or the elliott wave crash course video. It's free, but you may have to sign up for a free club membership, which has comes with other benefits.
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