Saturday, December 4, 2010

Vietnam may go Vertical.

The HO chi minh Stock Exchange (HOSE), after its euphoria rally of 2007 towards 1175, gave it all up in the next couple of years. As the world recovered in 2009, the HOSE rallied in Wave A to the 600 level from its low of 250, a 38% retrace. As seen in the chart, a lengthy triangular Wave B consolidation followed, retracing almost 50% of the rise. A medium-term bull market in Wave C might be right ahead, to retest the Wave A highs. Longer-term, the HOSE is in a bear market and is likely to re-test the lows. A sustained break below the lower support line will negate this scenario.

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