Thursday, May 26, 2011

S&P500 Failed IHS & Downtrend Channel

Not long after the last post, SPX broke below the proposed 'neckline', and hence invalidated the Inverse Head & Shoulders.This is a bearish development. The only consolation for the bulls is that the downtrend remains in a Corrective channel, and has not yet developed Impulsive characteristics. In the last few sessions, a positive divergence developed on the hourly, resulting in a relief rally.


The good news for the bears is in the chart below. The recent declines also broke the uptrendline of the rising channel (blue).


Can you count 5 waves up from Jul-10? As outlined in an earlier post on the DJ World Index, are we staring at an end of this uptrend? For a downtrend to take root, selling activity needs to pick up pace right here with better volumes.

For the moment, short-term upside is capped around 1330. A continuation of the uptrend requires a break above the downtrend channel.
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