Primary view: A break above 225 will target 245 in a 5th wave up. (May require more sideways movement, through the black uptrend channel before a break upwards.)
Alternate view: the 5th wave is already complete, and a breakdown out of the range is next. Support at 185.
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4 comments:
Referring back to the SSEC, I have obviously been reading Yelnicks stuff about terminal triangles and I just wonder whether the Shanghai could also be in a gigantic terminal triangle since last August. See http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=214ehqd&s=5 and I apologise for the state of the drawing. I am not very good at charting. However, the reason why this is SO important is because if the PRC ain't cutting it with a supposed 10% growth rate in their economy, then what chance have the rest of us. I guess that is what is keeping me bearish. As you have an interest in the SSEC I would like your views on this. Best. Chab.
Nice drawing Chabazite, you're too modest. If you refer to my previous posts on SSEC, you'll find the same chart. However, this is not a terminal triangle, but most likely a symmetrical triangle leading to a bullish outcome in the medium-term, with a target of around 4400. A terminal triangle, is a diagonal triangle and is usually rising or falling as a wave 5, or wave C. Shanghai has no preceding wave 4 or B to justify that scenario. In additional, net movement is sideways. IMHO, we're in a B wave symmetrical triangle that may breakout towards this year-end, upwards in a C wave(terminal). Once again, i propose that technicals run ahead of fundamentals, and sometimes far away from them :)
http://trendlines618.blogspot.com/search/label/SSEC
One more point. If SPX is in a terminal triangle, Shanghai doesn't have to agree. In fact, if you look at the past few years, it never has. Shanghai seems to run independent, or even AHEAD of other world markets. :)
Yes, I thought there were too many problems with this 'take' on things and I know your prognosis for the SSEC is bullish. I was never happy with my proposed scenario in as much as it goes sideways and I hadn't got as far as a bigger count. Best. Chab.
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