Thursday, March 11, 2010

S&P500 & Russell2000: Tortoise & Hare

Looking at the two charts, it's not difficult to tell who's who. While the SPX muddles along towards its previous high, the RUT's running circles around it. And it's not alone - many other sectors(including some dodgy ones) have done the same! Technology, Retail, Real Estate, Financials are some of them.

The previous high on these indices now becomes support. Is that a sign of strength or what?


Other signs of Strength Short-Term
  • Markets have been overbought for a while now, and still plodding along higher
  • Lower trendline supports yet to be broken
  • Low volume on the rise could indicate low retailer participation & skepticism - Sentiment readings confirm this
  • Inverse H&S target (1180) for SPX yet to be fulfilled
Please add if you can think of anything else.

Very Short-Term Top

Having listed all the above reasons to go higher short-term, i still think we're gonna reach a top in the very short-term. As you can see in the RUT chart, the range is narrowing and we're super duper overbought. But, not expecting a P3 or big plunge at this point. SPX will probably drop to the 1130 area, followed by 1116 area. RUT has strong support around 650. It all depends on the nature of the correction.

Will the Toroise reach the finish line(1150) and rest? Or will it try and catch the Hare? Always fun to read these classics.

All the best folks!

2 comments:

purple said...

nice analysis ;)

Trendlines said...

Thanks for dropping by purple :)

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